Hasty Conclusions: The Fate of the PS3 and Wii

Anthony Perez

December 27,2006 - Now that the PlayStation 3 and Wii have been stateside for over a month, many people have taken the time to reflect over the aftermath. The PlayStation 3 is still in somewhat short supply but unlike a month ago demand has seemed to dwindle to worrisome levels, while the Wii cannot be found at retailers whatsoever, with virtually everyone embracing its new level of interaction including the non-gamers Nintendo was targeting as an untapped market. But are things so straightforward as many people believe? Is what we're watching currently unfold mean the PlayStation 3 is in fact doomed and the Wii is the second coming of Nintendo? Well, perhaps we shouldn't speak too soon.

It appears Sony is a fast sinking ship with reports recently sprouting up all over the Web about PS3s just sitting on store shelves in plain sight with retail employees notifying ever potential customer who walks through the door of the console's availability. Yet there were no huge lines forming, fist throwing, or guns being fired in hopes of securing what CNN called "this year's hot holiday toy." Despite its inclusion of hardware parts worth more than the average CNN employee's paycheck, dozens, if not hundreds of units of the "toy" were, at one time, sitting and waiting to be purchased at both local shops and online retailers. A check of Futureshop.ca, a Canadian online retailer who had 175 available units as of Dec. 22, reveals that they have in fact sold out their stock. The fact they had so many units available at one time reinforces skepticism that the PS3 may not be as hot as previously believed.

PC World labeled it one of the top 10 tech mistakes of 2006. The New York Times wrote one of the most disparaging hardware reviews of the PS3 in existence. Still, it's Sony and despite the opinion of the company these days they aren't going to go down without a fight.

"Last year, at NotifyWire.com, we tracked several one thousand dollar Xbox 360 bundles which would sell out in less than two minutes after becoming available," said Ian Drake, president of NotifyWire.com, an online retail tracker that sends out "In Stock" notices via e-mail and newsletters. "Just today, a one thousand dollar PS3 bundle was in stock at eToys.com for over 12 hours. This sort of thing didn't happen with the Xbox 360 until well after Christmas."

Even eBay auctions, which after launch were easily exceeding $2,500 a pop, are struggling to top $700. According to the gaming blog Kotaku, scalpers are even beginning to give up and return the merchandise to stores.

On the other hand the Wii is selling like hot cakes and Nintendo is indeed hitting the market they were aiming for, both gamers and non-gamers. The Los Angeles Times recently published a piece chronicling Nintendo's work with tech-savvy woman's groups they dubbed "Alpha Moms" to share in a night of Wii gaming. The results?

"Most people were like, 'I don't play games,' " said Linda Perry, founder of the Yahoo parents group Peachhead who were one of the three groups chosen by Nintendo. But by the end of the night, she said, "everybody was playing it. People were working up a sweat."

Even my 64-year-old great aunt was playing Wii Sports and Rayman Raving Rabbids on my cousin's Wii during Thanksgiving. You can imagine my astonishment as a game journalist as I watched Nintendo's original Wii trailer come to life in my cousin's room on that fateful Thursday.

With all of this evidence and foreword you would believe that I would be easily drawn to the doomsday PS3 bandwagon, and my faith in Nintendo would be completely restored. Honestly, however, I know not to make snap judgments. I bought a Sony PSP on launch day a year ago with confidence, after seeing its strong launch lineup and potential as a true portable multimedia device. I included myself in message board discussions praising the PSP and watched as the average score for more PSP launch games topped the 80th and 90th percentile on GameRankings.com. The future looked bright. Now with the 2007 ball awaiting its descent in Times Square, my PSP lies in the hands of some stranger in Michigan. Thanks eBay.

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Anthony P.

12/28/06 - 1:07 AM

Joined:
1/24/05

Quote:

Originally posted by Batman

I went out shopping at a local store (Fred Meyers) on christmas eve around 8:30 or so. i went to the electronic section to look around.

I went over to the game case that is protected by 2 inch thick bullet proof glass to see whats up. To my shock I saw 3 PS3s sitting right there. i asked the clerk if they were pre-orders or displays. The guy said... "nope, we got 4 in yesturday". As shocked as I was I asked about the Wii, only to get, "I have no idea when we will have them, because they are always gone."

Thats the end of my story. I just find it sad that you couldnt get a 360 until about March/April and a Wii is hard to find, but the king is having a hard time on the shelf.

Well you're proof right there that the PS3 isn't doing to hot. I was talking a friend on the phone today after I published the article and he said he saw a couple at GameStop in the mall a few days ago and one at Wal-Mart too and he was shocked. Consumers are wising up and demanding software I guess. Either that or the fact that even traditional news media who don't even cover gaming all that much like the New York Times and TIME magazine ripped it apart...or it may very well be the price holding back those who are interested. There's one thing I do know, supply is exceeding demand and considering that I don't believe they've pushed out any more than 700,000 units tops so far (I'm giving them a lot of credit) that's just sad.

Andy Anonymous

12/28/06 - 11:02 AM

Joined:
12/28/06

Your article is interesting, but it ignores two crucial facts that weigh on what we saw last generation and what we're seeing now.

Point one is that the PS2 owed much of its initial sales success to the fact that it was an inexpensive DVD player just at the point when demand for such a device was at its zenith. Kids wanted the PS2; parents were willing to buy it for them because they got something out of it as well. Then the PS2's resulting installed base (along with the PlayStation brand name) got lots more third party games into the lineup, and that took over to drive PS2 sales. The PS3, however, does not have such a draw with its machine...certainly not Blu-ray, although that was clearly Sony's intent.

Point two is that the Wii has already penetrated more deeply into the mainstream consciousness than the GameCube ever did. GameCube enjoyed a fair amount of promise among gamers in the early days, as you mentioned. However, it was discounted by retailers from day one, enjoyed less promotion and less shelf space, and was quickly lost in the shuffle where non-core gamers were concerned. It was practically ignored by the media, and rarely even mentioned in the "Which should you buy this holiday: PS2 or Xbox?" articles on popular mainstream websites and in newspapers. Wii, on the other hand, is already omnipresent with the larger public. It's enjoyed widespread press coverage, it's being taken seriously by retailers, and most importantly of all, it's not starting off behind in the race after the holiday rush.

These two factors, in my mind, make the present situation quite a bit different than what happened last gen.

dminyard

12/28/06 - 12:49 PM

Joined:
12/28/06

Sony has blundered the launch of the PS3. Everyone knows it, but the gaming industry tries to put their best face on it because there are literally billions riding on the success/failure of this console.

Websites such as this, magazines, television programming: everyone stands to loose something should Sony fail so it's natural that they are likely to adopt a "you just wait" attitude. I imagine that over at magazines such as PSM an the like, some employees must be quaking in their shoes. Until the PS3 begins to gain some share of the market, the audience for PS3 news will be very small indeed, and as we all know, that translates into smaller ad revenues.

Of course the people at Sony aren't stupid, but they are out of touch. Naturally there will be that portion of the population that will shell out over $1,000 for a console, games and accessories, but the majority of the buying public just can't justify that expense.

It's interesting to me that the launch titles just weren't that impressive. Of course, that's true of any console, but with so much riding on the PS3, it just shows poor management that the lineup wasn't stellar in quality and quantity. You're fighting the Xbox 360, which gained a lot during the holidays; the Wii is getting great press and generating lots of buzz. Yeah, that's the time to adopt a wait and see attitude, isn't it? And by the way, isn't it true that the PS2 never actually lived up to the promise of what it would deliver? Even today developers were unable to fully tap into the PS2 hardware. So what makes anyone think the PS3 will be any different?

Midnght

12/28/06 - 3:42 PM

Joined:
12/28/06

wee wee oh no it's wii.

Anyway I'm a big backwards compatibility fan. Never liked buying a new console for the sake of games.

But still while the wii sounds fun.

Just do me a favor sit yourself down and come up with 25 interactive games for the wii that do not include sport, or some type of fighting/shooting game which will use the motion sensoring.

Frankly the whole interactive kick is great out the door but only so many genres of games will allow the wii to reach it's full potential and that genre is just to small for the wii to go the distance. Plus next year or two kids will want the new wii which will need new hardware and new games while the old one and all its' games and hardware gather dust.

Sorry my ps1 games don't collect dust, since i've gotten a ps2 and my ps2 and ps1's won't either when i get a ps3.

The old consoles will go to my childrens rooms but the games can be played in their respective places. ps 1 on the ps1, ps1 and 2 on the ps2, and ps3, 2 and 1 on the ps3. Nuff said time will tell and i forsee the wii struggling not because i dislike nintendo but because all the interactive game systems sold in the malls as kitch items are exactly that kitch items and you don't generaly find thm in your friends homes.

Anthony P.

12/28/06 - 3:59 PM

Joined:
1/24/05

First of all I would like to welcome our newest members who posted here, it's great to see you guys at the site and I hope you enjoy it.

As for the arguments above, I did enjoy Andy Anonymous' comment. I personally did not see the DVD player ability of the PS2 as that big of a selling point for the console. I haven't researched it well enough to make a conclusive statement whatsoever, but of the people I knew who owned a PS2, the majority of people saw the PS2 as a gaming console and nothing more. I would assume most parents were oblivious to its capabilities as a DVD player when they bought it for their children, but I do know that many parents believe that anything over $300 is way too high for a video game console.

As for point two, that is a very solid argument. For some reason I hadn't thought much of the social awareness of the Wii. Either way I highly doubt the Wii be #1 in this war, but they don't even need to be. They're already generating profit on each unit sold so they're happy. IMO, they're a complimentary console. As people have called the combination up to this point, the "Wii60" and it is a hell of a duo. The Xbox 360 has some spectacular titles, and on top of that a lot of the major titles are going to make their way to the 360. Even MGS4 will eventually make the transition, as did the rest of last gen's MGS games. What major franchises are really left? We've got Metal Gear SolidS on Xbox before and we know GTA IV is going to be on 360 day one. Could you imagine how monumental it would be for the 360 if Final Fantasy XIII became available for it. We've yet to see a proper FF installment (disregarding FFXI) land on anything aside from a Sony console since FFVII started the exclusivity of the franchise.

BadgerMac

12/28/06 - 5:05 PM

Joined:
12/28/06

Well written. Sony has made mis-steps for sure. The pricepoint beign one. Is it out of line once you compare the 360 w/ the HD-DVD drive and Wireless adapter added? No. But, bundling it and shoving down everyone's throats (at least those who buy it) is going to show in terms of the install base for the time being. The PS2 and XBOX debuted at 299, which at the time for people seemed high. Even the $399 360 Premium caused some angst amongst the press. At $499 and $599 you're asking families to literally pay the cost of 1.5-2x the previous generation ,and for many families they find that a non-starter.

As for the Wii, I finally looked at the game launch schedule that GameStop has on their website, and it looks REALLY lean. At least with the new gen consoles you can buy previous gen games to play. IN the case of my PS3 (yes I Have all 3 consoles because I'm a freak like that) I can pick up and play PS2 stuff I never played (having gotten rid of my PS2 within a year of launch, I grabbed one about 3 mos. after the initial launch). I've already grabbed the PS2 FF games and both Kingdom Hearts, as well as the Gran Turismos and I'm looking for the Grand Theft AUto series for the heck of it. That should curb my appetites on the PS side until the PS3 games start flowing (and I can also grab FFXII). Ditto with the Wii since I had a cube and have a library of games already in the closet.

Andy Anonymous

12/28/06 - 11:32 PM

Joined:
12/28/06

Anthony, I was working for a retailer between 2000 and 2003, so on a daily basis I was subject to parents' questions about all the consoles. The DVD playback on the PS2 was indeed a major reason why the system sold so well during the first year in spite of its admittedly lackluster library. It was perfectly timed, arriving just when DVD was really bursting out into the mainstream and becoming a much-desired format, but when most standalone players still cost $300 and up. That's why the PS3's Blu-ray drive was never a surprise to me: it's clear that Sony is well aware of how PS2 got an early lead, and wish to repeat that this generation. Of course the difference is that DVD was already on its way to becoming the new adopted format, whereas it's not clear Blu-ray will ever enjoy that status at all. (The same is true of HD-DVD as well, but that's another discussion.)

I think what you're going to see this generation is that there won't be one console that dominates across the globe like the PS2 did. I think the 360 is going to win the war in the US, but definitely not in Japan, where I honestly think the Wii is poised to take it due to the Japanese refusal to accept the 360, and a pretty lukewarm reception for the PS3 so far. In Europe it'll probably be 360, but I think it'll be a tight race.

PS3 is up in the air for me: I think it's the price that's keeping most people away. What Sony really needs is their GTA3 of this gen. That's what made the PS2 into the must-own system even after Xbox and GameCube were released, and they need another title to catch on like that one did. If not, they're going to be hurting. They've been relying too much on their brand name to sell the system, believing that "people will buy us because we're Playstation", which ironically is the same misguided thinking on Nintendo's part that allowed Sony to take the crown from them in the mid-90s.

Batman

12/29/06 - 3:23 PM

Joined:
3/11/04

Quote:

Originally posted by Andy Anonymous

I would have to agree. I know a lot of people who got the PS2 because it was also a DVD player. Now its a blu-ray player that I personally could give a rats about.

As far as the Ps3 doing well in Europe, I think if the rumors are true and that it could be delayed until September of 07 (instead of the March '07 date) then it could be over. Giving the Xbox almost a two year head start and maybe a price drop around that time is going to be hard to compete with.

As for the PS3 personally, I dont think there will be anything that will get me to buy it right now. It is going to take one hell of a game for me to buy that systeme. Even now considering a lot of the exclusive games are slowing moving over to the xbox aswell. You brought up the GTA3 for the Ps3 and now GTA is no longer a Sony "exclusive" like it was before.

I must say that the same thing goes for the Wii. I was thinking about getting it, but I looked at the games out now and the next few months and I was shocked to see nothing worth while until maybe the summer. If I do buy a Wii it will most likely be for the girlfriend, because of the new Animal Crossing (which Viva Pinata is a million times better :) )

Andy Anonymous

12/29/06 - 10:40 PM

Joined:
12/28/06

Quote:

Originally posted by Batman

I don't necessarily mean that PS3 needs another exclusive GTA game. I think a lot of people have been GTA-ed out at this point. It just needs a new must-have game that grabs core and non-core gamers alike, the way GTA3 did. Nothing on the horizon looks like that sort of game, but of course it's hard to see the future.

Also, even though other than Zelda none of the current Wii titles really reach out and scream "I'm a huge hit, buy me," there are some that are definitely worthwhile. Elebits is an incredibly fun title; it's challenging and has a lot of replay value, and is a good example of a game that couldn't be done without the remote control. Raving Rabbids will be out for the 360 this winter, but I think the Wii controls (along with the great humor) make that game shine. Additionally, Sonic and the Secret Rings is said to be the first 3D Sonic title to actually bring the speedy feel of the old 2D Sonic games to a modern console, and that's out in Q1.

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